Tuesday, July 17, 2007

And the Polls say: the GOP Nomination is: ?????

Not that I have ever put much credence into political polls, they are usually skewed and unrepresentative (I know I've never been randomly called by any of these pollsters), but the latest A.P.-Ipsos Poll is rather disturbing, if it can be trusted. It
found that nearly a quarter of Republicans are unwilling to back top-tier hopefuls Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, John McCain or Mitt Romney, and no one candidate has emerged as the clear front-runner among Christian evangelicals. Such dissatisfaction underscores the volatility of the 2008 GOP nomination fight.
But if the recent contentious nature of blogging within the conservative blogosphere is any indication, then I'm forced to believe that the poll must have some credibility, and if so, the Republican Party is in huge trouble, which is exactly what the other side is hoping for.

If Republicans think that someone with little name recognition is going to, hands down, win the White House in 2008, they are deluding themselves. Winning a lead role in politics is as much about name recognition, popularity and TVQ (Television Quotient) as winning a lead part in a major Hollywood Studio movie. As much as I might think I am talented and skilled enough, I am not going to book the lead in the next major blockbuster. I could have the best agent in the country lobbying to get me that audition, and even if he/she managed to get me the interview the producers, director etc. would dismiss me immediately for lack of 'star' power. In other words, they want actors who are going to generate money for them. A candidate with little or no 'star' power, and an insignificant war chest, has as much chance of getting to the Executive Mansion as I do of booking Spielberg's next.

Without money (and lots of it) during the whole campaigning process, chances of succeeding are severely limited. As it is, the Democrats have raised approximately $30 million more than the Republicans in the 2nd quarter. Considering they outraised the Republicans in the 1st quarter, as well, this is not great news.

While the Republicans are grumbling about one thing or another with respect to each and every one of the front runners in the GOP Party, the Democrats have remained pretty steady in their support of their various Dem candidates.
"The Democratic race remains static, with Hillary Rodham Clinton holding a sizable lead over Barack Obama. The New York senator, who is white, also outpaces her Illinois counterpart, who is black, among black and Hispanic Democrats, according to a combined sample of two months of polls.
According to David Redlask, a Univ. of Iowa political scientist:
"the Democrats are reasonably comfortable with the range of choices. The Democratic attitude is that three or four of these guys would be fine. The Republicans don't have that; particularly among the conservatives there's a real split. They just don't see candidates who reflect their interests and who they also view as viable." A hefty 23 percent can't or won't say which candidate they would back, a jump from the 14 percent who took a pass in June.
I have to admit that I'm one of the 23 percent, but I do know that when push comes to shove I will vote for the Republican nominee (unless some amazing candidate from some other party rides in to save the day) because I know that the alternative is not something I want to live with, unlike many conservatives who just handed over the House to the Democrats, during the last elections, because they wanted to punish the Republican Party. Cutting your nose to spite your face gains nothing but pain.

If we don't come together as a party, put aside our differences and nominate the candidate who is most likely to win the election in 2008, we will be effectively handing the White House over to Clinton, Obama, Gore (I'm still convinced he will run) or God-forbid Edwards.

We can't be worrying about whether someone was divorced, or supported abortion in the past, or is a Mormon, or has a trophy wife (not that Thompson is officially in the running). These are truly insignificant in the grand scheme of things, when we have far more important issues to be concerned with, like the escalating threat of terrorism, and Islamic imperialism breathing down our necks. If you don't think these are far more serious problems than social issues that can be dealt with on an inidvidual or State level, then by all means let the Dems win and see what happens. At least I know I will have done my part. I hope you will too.


Blazing Cat Fur said...

It may be a good thing that so much attention is focused on the Dems, eventually burn out sets in and that may cause people to become newly receptive to the GOP, assuming they can avoid suicide.

Incognito said...

I won't discount anything, BCF. I truly believe that if we continue with this infighting we are doomed.

Strawberry said...

Great post, Incog! Terrorism, the economy, China, North Korea, Iran - there are so many issues and the Republican party needs to have a strong candidate running against the Democratic party. You can ask a lot of different people and most of them can tell you at least 2, maybe 3 or more of the candidates for the Dems - but I bet few of them could name a Republican candidate!

This is far too important to allow apathy to win the race! Hopefully - bcf is right and everyone will grow very weary of hearing about the Dems candidates!

There have been some slightly snide remarks surfacing in the past couple of days. Who knows what may come out.

Panhandle Poet said...

FRED,FRED,FRED,FRED,'s FRED! Run, Fred, run! He's gearing up. He's playing it smart. He's got "star" power. He's got a highly intelligent lawyer for a "trophy" wife. Must be a lot of vigor left in him....

WomanHonorThyself said...

we shall see Incog..lets pray whoever it is he has the strength to fight the dang izlamosssssssssssssss!

Righty64 said...

Check out my latest post on the candidates. Yea, I for one do not get it. I am a conservative Republican and I really could vote for any of our four top tier candidates. Of course you know I am on the Romney bandwagon, but come on. Some of you who stayed home November, 2006 are happy that the Dems are in control of congress? I am not, I voted and blogged excessivly as to why you should have too! I think that some people forget that Ronald Reagan was NOT the only conservative running for the GOP nod in 1980. The conventional wisdom there was that George H. W. Bush was going to divide the conservative vote and ride on to the nomination. I say this to remind Republicans that what we are seeing is the same tactic used in 2006. Demoralize the base and hope that 2008 is a Dem cake walk. Ain't gonna happen. Oh, and the AP/Ispos is one of the LEAST reliable of the polling companies.

Pat Jenkins said...

yes incog this was a great post. i see no eminent solution for the lack of excitment from the right. but for one we have time, for now, on our side, an the hope of a suitable "voice".

MUD said...

I will leave the excitement for the run against Hillary. How can a woman with White Water on her watch have the ability to shine as a leading example of what is right. I agree that there is just not enough excitement about the race right now and perhaps we can heat it up when we get closer. There are a lot of people that feel the white house needs to be in the hands of the other party for a while. I am still looking for a leader. MUD

Debbie said...

I'm hoping for Dem burn out also, but not counting on it.

I think when push comes to shove in the voting booth, republicans will come through and vote the right way.

No way we can let the Dems win. Incognito, you are right, we would be doomed.

I like Fred, but this past week the negative articles have really been coming out. People (the Left) will try to ruin him if they can, they truly fear he is the one who could beat them.

Freedomnow said...

Leftists are keen to promote the false depiction of Conservatives as split.

Look at the recent troop withdrawal votes.

Its all b.s. propaganda.

MUD said...

YES, it is all politics. If the voters of this country really got out and voted it would be clear what we want. In our last election we had 16% of the people get out and vote. That meant that 9% of the total voters decided who was in charge. GIVE A SHIT! VOTE! or sit down and let the undecideds decide. MUD

Karen said...

I have said from the beginning of this mad season, the only hope we as Republicans have is to nominate someone strong enough to beat Hillary. She'll be the nominee. Unless the far right can grow some steel in their spines and admit that the social issues are not quite as important as national security, then they'll sit home and not vote. Hillary will take the White House.

I think the only consistent winner in a Hillary match is Rudy. Thompson is attractive but I don't think he can quite do it. Maybe as VP on the ticket.

Republicans must unite, that's for sure.

Good post.

Incognito said...

Great comments, my friends! Glad to see that you feel the same way about the most important issues at hand.

I certainly hope the base can let go of the apathy, divisiveness etc by election time, and hopefully it won't be too late. Can we wait for Dem burnout? I don't think we can.

Unfortunately, Freedomnow, it's not just B.S. I've read it on conservative blogs. But, again, hopefully that will change.

I think a Giuliani/Thompson ticket could do the job. Agreed. Karen.

AS MUD says.. Vote! and Vote right! :-)

Anonymous said...

It is imperative that republican not relinquish the white house, especially to the Clintons.

Robert Miller

Strawberry said...

Robert - you mean not relinquish the White House to the Clintons, AGAIN?! Maybe they could scratch all the c's off the keyboards! :)

Little Miss Chatterbox said...

Before Fred Thompson this was a big concern for me but I think once he declares most of us will rally around him. He is good on immigration so we won't have that split and when you consider that Hillary is a lock for the Dem nominee and 52% of Americans won't vote for her no matter what I don't think we are that bad off.

Before Fred Thompson I thought a Hillary presidency was unavoidable, but I don't think that anymore.

Incognito said...

ROBERT: Thanks for stopping by. And I agree. I think Hillary will be disastrous. Not sure how she can be so ahead in the Dem polls when most of my Dem cohorts say they won't vote for her. Though, if she's the nom, I'm sure they will.

STRAWB: :-) Good idea!

LMC: Hope you're right. As long as we get the Repub. base to vote, regardless of who the Repub nom is.

Freedomnow said...


When the only Republicans that voted for a bill, except for one, are the ones that sponsored the bill, it is nothing but propaganda to say that the Republicans are split.

While only 4 Republicans broke ranks with the party on the House Withdrawal Bill, 10 Democrats broke ranks with their party.

Since more than double the amount of Democrats voted against party lines as Republicans did, does that mean there is a rebellion in the Democratic Party?

There is a dismal lack of balance in our media.

Frasypoo said...

I am not sure but I thought I heard Oprah is having a fundraiser for Obama with dinner at 2300.00 per person !!
Wonder whats in that food ?

Incognito said...

FREEDOMNOW: I think you misunderstand me. When I refer to the divisiness and rancor I was referring to the voter base, not the elected officials themselves. There is a lot of rancor within the blogging community.
Hope that clarifies it some.

FRASY: I heard she was having a fundraiser as well, but hadn't heard about the cost per plate. Wow. Hope she gives them all some nice gift! She could get him lots of votes. She's well loved by many,

American Interests said...

How to add some much needed pizzaz to the Republican GOP race? Have the President take steps to change the constitution so Arnie can run.

Incognito said...

Heh! :-) Well, he's done quite well for California, AI, but not many in the conservative Republican realm are too thrilled with him. But, that would be interesting, if possible.